面向可持续发展的无居民海岛开发利用适宜性评价及海岛安全风险评估研究——以广州为例

Study on the suitability evaluation and safety risk assessment of sustainable development for uninhabited islands: A case study of Guangzhou

  • 摘要: 科学评估海岛开发利用适宜性及海岛安全模拟有助于科学开发利用海岛。本研究以广州9个无居民海岛为例,基于生态−经济双重视角,构建海岛开发利用适宜性评价模型并开展评价,进一步模拟海岛风暴潮及地面沉降风险并提出韧性规划策略。结果表明:①广州市有3个海岛优先开发、4个海岛适宜开发,应结合资源禀赋适当拓展海岛功能,做好开发容量控制;②大蠔沙、屎船沙开发需警惕地表沉降、台风风暴潮风险。

     

    Abstract: Scientifically assessing the suitability for island development and conducting simulation assessments of island safety contribute to orderly and safe planning for island development. Taking the 9 islands in Guangzhou as an example, we constructed an evaluation index system for the suitability of island development, based on sustainability and a dual perspective of ecology-economy. Additionally, we conducted simulation assessments of extreme weather events and ground subsidence risks for suitable developed island,identifying risk factors related to island hazards and proposed resilient planning strategies. The findings indicate that: ① There are 3 priority-developed islands in Guangzhou City, along with 4 suitable-developed ones. It is recommended that appropriate expansion be made based on the resource endowment of each island while controlling their spatial capacity. ② Additionally,Dahaosha Island & Shichuansha Island must be exercised regarding surface subsidence as well as typhoon storm surge risks during their development process.

     

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